Difference between revisions of "User:Johnnybravo/HistoricalElo"

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(2013 spring cup)
(summer 2013)
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Elo ratings are calculated using the USCF rating system with the [http://www.chess.com/download/view/elo-rater-20 Elo Rating 2.0 software]. Teams are given an initial rating of 1300 for their first official match. Official cup matches are the only matches used; despite friendlies counting toward the rankings at the time I will not be using those games. Any matches stricken from the official record books, such as those affected by [[Dragongate]], are not accounted for. Penalty shootouts are counted as draws in the system.  
Elo ratings are calculated using the USCF rating system with the [http://www.chess.com/download/view/elo-rater-20 Elo Rating 2.0 software]. Teams are given an initial rating of 1300 for their first official match. Official cup matches are the only matches used; despite friendlies counting toward the rankings at the time I will not be using those games. Any matches stricken from the official record books, such as those affected by [[Dragongate]], are not accounted for. Penalty shootouts are counted as draws in the system.  


When new teams are added to the cup, they are entered at the lowest ranking currently available in the table. For example, when /o/, /jp/, /tg/, and /co/ joined the cup in Winter 2012, they begin as tied at #17 in the rankings, and the change from that number is what is reflected in the table. Therefore, it is possible for a team to drop places in its' first-ever cup.
When new teams are added to the cup, they are entered at the lowest ranking currently available in the table. For example, when /o/, /jp/, /tg/, and /co/ joined the cup in Winter 2012, they begin as tied at #17 in the rankings, and the change from that number is what is reflected in the table. Therefore, it is possible for a team to drop places in its' first-ever cup. (this only applies for those cups for which I've done ranking changes)


All matches are rated equally - the Elo system is designed so that teams are rewarded by playing higher-ranked opponents as opposed to volume of matches. While this may lead to discrepancy when the Babby Cup is first introduced, I am currently of the opinion that the rankings will stabilize appropriately.
All matches are rated equally - the Elo system is designed so that teams are rewarded by playing higher-ranked opponents as opposed to volume of matches. While this may lead to discrepancy when the Babby Cup is first introduced, I am currently of the opinion that the rankings will stabilize appropriately.
Elo is not a model designed for the 4chan Cup and suffers from several issues that make the main rankings system a more accurate alternative. This is more designed to see a club's strength over time than to say one team is better than another at any particular moment. Additionally, 4cc teams change in strength far more rapidly than the elo model can capture. Of note is how much these rankings love /sp/: until the 2013 Summer Cup, the club had only suffered a single loss. This accounts for them topping the rankings for such an extended period of time.


==[[2011_4chan_Summer_Cup | 2011 Summer Cup]]==
==[[2011_4chan_Summer_Cup | 2011 Summer Cup]]==
Line 423: Line 425:
|}
|}
Although /cm/, /hm/, /n/, /o/, /vp/, and /y/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.
Although /cm/, /hm/, /n/, /o/, /vp/, and /y/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.
==[[2013_4chan_Spring_Babby_Cup | 2012 Spring Babby Cup]]==
==[[2013_4chan_Spring_Babby_Cup | 2013 Spring Babby Cup]]==
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|-
|-
Line 503: Line 505:
|-
|-
| align="center" | 39 || {{team away|gif}} || 1092
| align="center" | 39 || {{team away|gif}} || 1092
|-
| align="center" | 40 || {{team away|c}} || 1061
|-
| align="center" | 41 ||{{team away|hr}} || 1031
|-
| align="center" | 42 ||{{team away|vp}} || 1000
|-
| align="center" | 43 ||{{team away|s}} || 913
|-
| align="center" | 44 ||{{team away|o}} || 903
|}
Although /3/, /an/, /diy/, /ic/, /o/, /s/, and /vp/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.
==[[2013_4chan_Summer_Cup | 2013 Summer Cup]]==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Ranking !! Team !! Elo
|-
| align="center" | 1 || {{team away|sp}} || 1703
|-
| align="center" | 2 || {{team away|wg}} || 1687
|-
| align="center" | 3 ||{{team away|mu}} || 1558
|-
| align="center" | 4 ||{{team away|a}} || 1526
|-
| align="center" | 5 || {{team away|m}} || 1522
|-
| align="center" | 6 ||{{team away|toy}} || 1490
|-
| align="center" | 7 ||{{team away|hm}} || 1489
|-
| align="center" | 8 || {{team away|int}} || 1483
|-
| align="center" | 9 || {{team away|fit}} || 1471
|-
| align="center" | 10 || {{team away|ck}} || 1437
|-
| align="center" | 11 ||{{team away|trv}} || 1427
|-
| align="center" | 11 ||{{team away|d}} || 1427
|-
| align="center" | 13 ||{{team away|mlp}} || 1422
|-
| align="center" | 14 || {{team away|tg}} || 1407
|-
| align="center" | 15 ||{{team away|co}} || 1406
|-
| align="center" | 16 ||{{team away|v}} || 1385
|-
| align="center" | 17||{{team away|adv}} || 1380
|-
| align="center" | 18 ||{{team away|k}} || 1366
|-
| align="center" | 19 || {{team away|u}} || 1364
|-
| align="center" | 20 ||{{team away|pol}} || 1345
|-
| align="center" | 21 || {{team away|jp}} || 1326
|-
| align="center" | 22 || {{team away|b}} || 1318
|-
| align="center" | 23 ||{{team away|r9k}} || 1317
|-
| align="center" | 24 ||{{team away|po}} || 1310
|-
| align="center" | 25 || {{team away|3}} || 1307
|-
| align="center" | 26 || {{team away|sci}} || 1305
|-
| align="center" | 27 ||{{team away|h}} || 1284
|-
| align="center" | 28 ||{{team away|x}} || 1278
|-
| align="center" | 29 || {{team away|soc}} || 1275
|-
| align="center" | 30 ||{{team away|g}} || 1247
|-
| align="center" | 31 ||{{team away|cgl}} || 1224
|-
| align="center" | 32 ||{{team away|f}} || 1210
|-
| align="center" | 33 ||{{team away|an}} || 1200
|-
| align="center" | 34 || {{team away|tv}} || 1198
|-
| align="center" | 35 ||{{team away|lit}} || 1189
|-
| align="center" | 36 ||{{team away|fa}} || 1166
|-
| align="center" | 37 || {{team away|vg}} || 1113
|-
| align="center" | 38 || {{team away|gif}} || 1092
|-
|-
| align="center" | 39 || {{team away|c}} || 1061
| align="center" | 39 || {{team away|c}} || 1061
Line 514: Line 608:
| align="center" | 42 ||{{team away|o}} || 903
| align="center" | 42 ||{{team away|o}} || 903
|}
|}
Although /3/, /an/, /diy/, /ic/, /o/, /s/, and /vp/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.

Revision as of 04:02, 24 December 2015

An effort to track the relative strength of each 4cc team throughout cup history.

Methodology

Elo ratings are calculated using the USCF rating system with the Elo Rating 2.0 software. Teams are given an initial rating of 1300 for their first official match. Official cup matches are the only matches used; despite friendlies counting toward the rankings at the time I will not be using those games. Any matches stricken from the official record books, such as those affected by Dragongate, are not accounted for. Penalty shootouts are counted as draws in the system.

When new teams are added to the cup, they are entered at the lowest ranking currently available in the table. For example, when /o/, /jp/, /tg/, and /co/ joined the cup in Winter 2012, they begin as tied at #17 in the rankings, and the change from that number is what is reflected in the table. Therefore, it is possible for a team to drop places in its' first-ever cup. (this only applies for those cups for which I've done ranking changes)

All matches are rated equally - the Elo system is designed so that teams are rewarded by playing higher-ranked opponents as opposed to volume of matches. While this may lead to discrepancy when the Babby Cup is first introduced, I am currently of the opinion that the rankings will stabilize appropriately.

Elo is not a model designed for the 4chan Cup and suffers from several issues that make the main rankings system a more accurate alternative. This is more designed to see a club's strength over time than to say one team is better than another at any particular moment. Additionally, 4cc teams change in strength far more rapidly than the elo model can capture. Of note is how much these rankings love /sp/: until the 2013 Summer Cup, the club had only suffered a single loss. This accounts for them topping the rankings for such an extended period of time.

2011 Summer Cup

Ranking Team Elo Change
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1790 Steady.png
2 A icon.png /a/ 1722 Steady.png
3 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1716 Steady.png
4 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1619 Steady.png
5 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1457 Steady.png
5 V icon.png /v/ 1457 Steady.png
7 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1333 Steady.png
7 G icon.png /g/ 1333 Steady.png
9 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1166 Steady.png
9 Int icon.png /int/ 1166 Steady.png
9 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1166 Steady.png
9 X icon.png /x/ 1166 Steady.png
13 B icon.png /b/ 900 Steady.png
13 K icon.png /k/ 900 Steady.png
13 S icon.png /s/ 900 Steady.png
13 Soc icon.png /soc/ 900 Steady.png

2012 Winter Cup

Ranking Team Elo Change
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1740 Steady.png
2 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1664 Increase.png 1
3 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1565 Increase.png 2
4 A icon.png /a/ 1561 Decrease2.png 2
5 K icon.png /k/ 1555 Increase.png 8
6 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1529 Decrease2.png 2
7 Tg icon.png /tg/ 1525 Increase.png 10
8 Co icon.png /co/ 1449 Increase.png 9
9 V icon.png /v/ 1347 Decrease2.png 4
10 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1333 Decrease2.png 3
11 G icon.png /g/ 1322 Decrease2.png 3
12 Jp icon.png /jp/ 1291 Increase.png 5
13 X icon.png /x/ 1281 Decrease2.png 4
14 Int icon.png /int/ 1166 Decrease2.png 5
15 B icon.png /b/ 1147 Decrease2.png 1
16 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1090 Decrease2.png 7
17 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1065 Decrease2.png 8
18 O icon.png /o/ 903 Decrease2.png 1
19 S icon.png /s/ 900 Decrease2.png 6
19 Soc icon.png /soc/ 900 Decrease2.png 6

2012 Spring Babby Cup

Ranking Team Elo Change
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1740 Steady.png
2 M icon.png /m/ 1619 Steady.png
3 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1596 Steady.png
4 A icon.png /a/ 1536 Increase.png 1
5 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1533 Decrease2.png 1
6 K icon.png /k/ 1502 Steady.png
7 Gif icon.png /gif/ 1500 Increase.png 3
8 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1484 Decrease2.png 1
9 3 icon.png /3/ 1514 Increase.png 12
10 Gif icon.png /gif/ 1500 Increase.png 11
11 D icon.png /d/ 1449 Increase.png 10
11 Co icon.png /co/ 1449 Decrease2.png 3
13 Cgl icon.png /cgl/ 1400 Increase.png 8
14 Sci icon.png /sci/ 1391 Increase.png 7
15 V icon.png /v/ 1347 Decrease2.png 6
16 R9k icon.png /r9k/ 1333 Increase.png 5
16 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1333 Decrease2.png 6
18 G icon.png /g/ 1322 Decrease2.png 7
19 Toy icon.png /toy/ 1316 Increase.png 2
20 Po icon.png /po/ 1300 Increase.png 1
21 Jp icon.png /jp/ 1291 Decrease2.png 9
22 X icon.png /x/ 1281 Decrease2.png 9
23 Pol icon.png /pol/ 1258 Decrease2.png 2
24 An icon.png /an/ 1200 Decrease2.png 3
25 B icon.png /b/ 1147 Decrease2.png 10
26 F icon.png /f/ 1133 Decrease2.png 5
27 Int icon.png /int/ 1129 Decrease2.png 13
28 Lit icon.png /lit/ 1100 Decrease2.png 7
29 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1090 Decrease2.png 13
30 Mlp icon.png /mlp/ 1066 Decrease2.png 9
31 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1065 Decrease2.png 14
32 Vp icon.png /vp/ 1000 Decrease2.png 11
33 S icon.png /s/ 950 Decrease2.png 14
34 O icon.png /o/ 903 Decrease2.png 16
35 Soc icon.png /soc/ 900 Decrease2.png 16

Note that while /cm/, /y/, and /n/ made their debuts in this tournament, their matches have been stricken from the record and thus those teams do not appear in the rankings.

2012 Summer Cup

editor's note: getting rid of the arrows here as they are proving to be a major time constraint. I will add them later if I revisit the project.

Ranking Team Elo
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1740
2 M icon.png /m/ 1619
3 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1596
4 A icon.png /a/ 1536
5 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1533
6 K icon.png /k/ 1502
7 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1484
8 Tg icon.png /tg/ 1482
9 Co icon.png /co/ 1461
10 Toy icon.png /toy/ 1459
11 Int icon.png /int/ 1453
12 D icon.png /d/ 1444
13 3 icon.png /3/ 1439
14 Cgl icon.png /cgl/ 1400
15 Pol icon.png /pol/ 1385
16 Sci icon.png /sci/ 1359
17 V icon.png /v/ 1335
18 R9k icon.png /r9k/ 1333
18 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1333
20 Po icon.png /po/ 1300
21 Jp icon.png /jp/ 1291
22 G icon.png /g/ 1283
23 X icon.png /x/ 1281
24 An icon.png /an/ 1200
25 Gif icon.png /gif/ 1195
26 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1156
27 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1146
28 F icon.png /f/ 1133
28 B icon.png /b/ 1133
30 Lit icon.png /lit/ 1100
31 Mlp icon.png /mlp/ 1066
32 Vp icon.png /vp/ 1000
33 S icon.png /s/ 950
34 O icon.png /o/ 903
35 Soc icon.png /soc/ 900

While /n/, /o/, /sp/, and /x/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches and received no ranking points .

2012 Autumn Babby Cup

Ranking Team Elo
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1740
2 Wg icon.png /wg/ 1670
3 M icon.png /m/ 1619
4 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1596
5 A icon.png /a/ 1536
6 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1533
7 K icon.png /k/ 1502
8 Hm icon.png /hm/ 1489
9 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1484
10 Tg icon.png /tg/ 1482
11 R9k icon.png /r9k/ 1480
12 Co icon.png /co/ 1461
13 Toy icon.png /toy/ 1459
14 Int icon.png /int/ 1453
15 D icon.png /d/ 1444
16 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1423
17 Trv icon.png /trv/ 1393
17 H icon.png /h/ 1393
19 Pol icon.png /pol/ 1385
20 Sci icon.png /sci/ 1371
21 3 icon.png /3/ 1307
22 Jp icon.png /jp/ 1299
23 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1290
24 X icon.png /x/ 1281
24 V icon.png /v/ 1281
26 Mlp icon.png /mlp/ 1279
27 G icon.png /g/ 1222
28 Vg icon.png /vg/ 1220
28 An icon.png /an/ 1220
30 F icon.png /f/ 1176
31 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1163
32 Po icon.png /po/ 1157
33 Cgl icon.png /cgl/ 1127
34 B icon.png /b/ 1118
35 Lit icon.png /lit/ 1069
36 Soc icon.png /soc/ 1051
37 Gif icon.png /gif/ 1046
38 Hr icon.png /hr/ 1037
39 U icon.png /u/ 1023
40 Vp icon.png /vp/ 1000
41 S icon.png /s/ 913
42 O icon.png /o/ 903

While /an/, /c/, /cm/, /diy/, /ic/, /o/, /vp/, and /y/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches. /c/ was a particularly unfortunate victim of circumstance and was grouped with 3 dragonfag teams.

2013 Winter Cup

Ranking Team Elo
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1786
2 Wg icon.png /wg/ 1653
3 A icon.png /a/ 1587
4 M icon.png /m/ 1543
5 Toy icon.png /toy/ 1528
6 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1522
7 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1517
8 Int icon.png /int/ 1509
9 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1500
10 Hm icon.png /hm/ 1489
11 K icon.png /k/ 1466
12 Co icon.png /co/ 1447
13 D icon.png /d/ 1442
14 Pol icon.png /pol/ 1435
15 Tg icon.png /tg/ 1433
16 Trv icon.png /trv/ 1421
17 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1419
18 R9k icon.png /r9k/ 1410
19 V icon.png /v/ 1349
19 Sci icon.png /sci/ 1349
21 X icon.png /x/ 1347
22 Mlp icon.png /mlp/ 1330
23 Jp icon.png /jp/ 1314
24 3 icon.png /3/ 1307
25 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1264
26 G icon.png /g/ 1222
27 H icon.png /h/ 1217
28 An icon.png /an/ 1200
29 F icon.png /f/ 1176
30 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1163
31 Vg icon.png /vg/ 1162
32 Po icon.png /po/ 1157
33 Cgl icon.png /cgl/ 1127
34 B icon.png /b/ 1118
36 Soc icon.png /soc/ 1091
35 Lit icon.png /lit/ 1069
37 Gif icon.png /gif/ 1046
38 Hr icon.png /hr/ 1037
39 U icon.png /u/ 1023
40 Vp icon.png /vp/ 1000
41 S icon.png /s/ 913
42 O icon.png /o/ 903

Although /cm/, /hm/, /n/, /o/, /vp/, and /y/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.

2013 Spring Babby Cup

Ranking Team Elo
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1786
2 Wg icon.png /wg/ 1653
3 A icon.png /a/ 1587
4 Toy icon.png /toy/ 1528
5 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1522
6 Int icon.png /int/ 1509
7 M icon.png /m/ 1543
8 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1500
9 Hm icon.png /hm/ 1489
10 D icon.png /d/ 1469
11 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1455
12 Mlp icon.png /mlp/ 1445
13 Pol icon.png /pol/ 1435
14 Tg icon.png /tg/ 1433
16 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1419
17 Trv icon.png /trv/ 1375
18 K icon.png /k/ 1366
19 Co icon.png /co/ 1351
20 V icon.png /v/ 1349
21 R9k icon.png /r9k/ 1317
22 Jp icon.png /jp/ 1314
23 Sci icon.png /sci/ 1308
24 3 icon.png /3/ 1307
25 X icon.png /x/ 1300
26 G icon.png /g/ 1263
27 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1255
28 h} 1238
29 Lit icon.png /lit/ 1236
30 Cgl icon.png /cgl/ 1234
31 Soc icon.png /soc/ 1224
32 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1223
33 An icon.png /an/ 1200
34 F icon.png /f/ 1190
35 Po icon.png /po/ 1178
36 B icon.png /b/ 1167
37 U icon.png /u/ 1159
38 Vg icon.png /vg/ 1113
39 Gif icon.png /gif/ 1092
40 C icon.png /c/ 1061
41 Hr icon.png /hr/ 1031
42 Vp icon.png /vp/ 1000
43 S icon.png /s/ 913
44 O icon.png /o/ 903

Although /3/, /an/, /diy/, /ic/, /o/, /s/, and /vp/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.

2013 Summer Cup

Ranking Team Elo
1 Sp icon.png /sp/ 1703
2 Wg icon.png /wg/ 1687
3 Mu icon.png /mu/ 1558
4 A icon.png /a/ 1526
5 M icon.png /m/ 1522
6 Toy icon.png /toy/ 1490
7 Hm icon.png /hm/ 1489
8 Int icon.png /int/ 1483
9 Fit icon.png /fit/ 1471
10 Ck icon.png /ck/ 1437
11 Trv icon.png /trv/ 1427
11 D icon.png /d/ 1427
13 Mlp icon.png /mlp/ 1422
14 Tg icon.png /tg/ 1407
15 Co icon.png /co/ 1406
16 V icon.png /v/ 1385
17 Adv icon.png /adv/ 1380
18 K icon.png /k/ 1366
19 U icon.png /u/ 1364
20 Pol icon.png /pol/ 1345
21 Jp icon.png /jp/ 1326
22 B icon.png /b/ 1318
23 R9k icon.png /r9k/ 1317
24 Po icon.png /po/ 1310
25 3 icon.png /3/ 1307
26 Sci icon.png /sci/ 1305
27 H icon.png /h/ 1284
28 X icon.png /x/ 1278
29 Soc icon.png /soc/ 1275
30 G icon.png /g/ 1247
31 Cgl icon.png /cgl/ 1224
32 F icon.png /f/ 1210
33 An icon.png /an/ 1200
34 Tv icon.png /tv/ 1198
35 Lit icon.png /lit/ 1189
36 Fa icon.png /fa/ 1166
37 Vg icon.png /vg/ 1113
38 Gif icon.png /gif/ 1092
39 C icon.png /c/ 1061
40 Hr icon.png /hr/ 1031
41 Vp icon.png /vp/ 1000
41 S icon.png /s/ 913
42 O icon.png /o/ 903
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