User:Johnnybravo/HistoricalElo

An effort to track the relative strength of each 4cc team throughout cup history.

Methodology

Elo ratings are calculated using the USCF rating system with the Elo Rating 2.0 software. Teams are given an initial rating of 1300 for their first official match. Official cup matches are the only matches used; despite friendlies counting toward the rankings at the time I will not be using those games. Any matches stricken from the official record books, such as those affected by Dragongate, are not accounted for. Penalty shootouts are counted as draws in the system.

When new teams are added to the cup, they are entered at the lowest ranking currently available in the table. For example, when /o/, /jp/, /tg/, and /co/ joined the cup in Winter 2012, they begin as tied at #17 in the rankings, and the change from that number is what is reflected in the table. Therefore, it is possible for a team to drop places in its' first-ever cup. (this only applies for those cups for which I've done ranking changes)

All matches are rated equally - the Elo system is designed so that teams are rewarded by playing higher-ranked opponents as opposed to volume of matches. While this may lead to discrepancy when the Babby Cup is first introduced, I am currently of the opinion that the rankings will stabilize appropriately.

Elo is not a model designed for the 4chan Cup and suffers from several issues that make the main rankings system a more accurate alternative. This is more designed to see a club's strength over time than to say one team is better than another at any particular moment. Additionally, 4cc teams change in strength far more rapidly than the elo model can capture. Of note is how much these rankings love /sp/: until the 2013 Summer Cup, the club had only suffered a single loss. This accounts for them topping the rankings for such an extended period of time.

2011 Summer Cup

Ranking	Team	Elo	Change
1	/sp/	1790
2	/a/	1722
3	/ck/	1716
4	/mu/	1619
5	/fit/	1457
5	/v/	1457
7	/adv/	1333
7	/g/	1333
9	/fa/	1166
9	/int/	1166
9	/tv/	1166
9	/x/	1166
13	/b/	900
13	/k/	900
13	/s/	900
13	/soc/	900

2012 Winter Cup

Ranking	Team	Elo	Change
1	/sp/	1740
2	/ck/	1664	1
3	/fit/	1565	2
4	/a/	1561	2
5	/k/	1555	8
6	/mu/	1529	2
7	/tg/	1525	10
8	/co/	1449	9
9	/v/	1347	4
10	/adv/	1333	3
11	/g/	1322	3
12	/jp/	1291	5
13	/x/	1281	4
14	/int/	1166	5
15	/b/	1147	1
16	/fa/	1090	7
17	/tv/	1065	8
18	/o/	903	1
19	/s/	900	6
19	/soc/	900	6

2012 Spring Babby Cup

Ranking	Team	Elo	Change
1	/sp/	1740
2	/m/	1619
3	/ck/	1596
4	/a/	1536	1
5	/fit/	1533	1
6	/k/	1502
7	/gif/	1500	3
8	/mu/	1484	1
9	/3/	1514	12
10	/gif/	1500	11
11	/d/	1449	10
11	/co/	1449	3
13	/cgl/	1400	8
14	/sci/	1391	7
15	/v/	1347	6
16	/r9k/	1333	5
16	/adv/	1333	6
18	/g/	1322	7
19	/toy/	1316	2
20	/po/	1300	1
21	/jp/	1291	9
22	/x/	1281	9
23	/pol/	1258	2
24	/an/	1200	3
25	/b/	1147	10
26	/f/	1133	5
27	/int/	1129	13
28	/lit/	1100	7
29	/fa/	1090	13
30	/mlp/	1066	9
31	/tv/	1065	14
32	/vp/	1000	11
33	/s/	950	14
34	/o/	903	16
35	/soc/	900	16

Note that while /cm/, /y/, and /n/ made their debuts in this tournament, their matches have been stricken from the record and thus those teams do not appear in the rankings.

2012 Summer Cup

editor's note: getting rid of the arrows here as they are proving to be a major time constraint. I will add them later if I revisit the project.

Ranking	Team	Elo
1	/sp/	1740
2	/m/	1619
3	/ck/	1596
4	/a/	1536
5	/fit/	1533
6	/k/	1502
7	/mu/	1484
8	/tg/	1482
9	/co/	1461
10	/toy/	1459
11	/int/	1453
12	/d/	1444
13	/3/	1439
14	/cgl/	1400
15	/pol/	1385
16	/sci/	1359
17	/v/	1335
18	/r9k/	1333
18	/adv/	1333
20	/po/	1300
21	/jp/	1291
22	/g/	1283
23	/x/	1281
24	/an/	1200
25	/gif/	1195
26	/fa/	1156
27	/tv/	1146
28	/f/	1133
28	/b/	1133
30	/lit/	1100
31	/mlp/	1066
32	/vp/	1000
33	/s/	950
34	/o/	903
35	/soc/	900

While /n/, /o/, /sp/, and /x/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches and received no ranking points .

2012 Autumn Babby Cup

Ranking	Team	Elo
1	/sp/	1740
2	/wg/	1670
3	/m/	1619
4	/ck/	1596
5	/a/	1536
6	/fit/	1533
7	/k/	1502
8	/hm/	1489
9	/mu/	1484
10	/tg/	1482
11	/r9k/	1480
12	/co/	1461
13	/toy/	1459
14	/int/	1453
15	/d/	1444
16	/adv/	1423
17	/trv/	1393
17	/h/	1393
19	/pol/	1385
20	/sci/	1371
21	/3/	1307
22	/jp/	1299
23	/tv/	1290
24	/x/	1281
24	/v/	1281
26	/mlp/	1279
27	/g/	1222
28	/vg/	1220
28	/an/	1220
30	/f/	1176
31	/fa/	1163
32	/po/	1157
33	/cgl/	1127
34	/b/	1118
35	/lit/	1069
36	/soc/	1051
37	/gif/	1046
38	/hr/	1037
39	/u/	1023
40	/vp/	1000
41	/s/	913
42	/o/	903

While /an/, /c/, /cm/, /diy/, /ic/, /o/, /vp/, and /y/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches. /c/ was a particularly unfortunate victim of circumstance and was grouped with 3 dragonfag teams.

2013 Winter Cup

Ranking	Team	Elo
1	/sp/	1786
2	/wg/	1653
3	/a/	1587
4	/m/	1543
5	/toy/	1528
6	/fit/	1522
7	/ck/	1517
8	/int/	1509
9	/mu/	1500
10	/hm/	1489
11	/k/	1466
12	/co/	1447
13	/d/	1442
14	/pol/	1435
15	/tg/	1433
16	/trv/	1421
17	/adv/	1419
18	/r9k/	1410
19	/v/	1349
19	/sci/	1349
21	/x/	1347
22	/mlp/	1330
23	/jp/	1314
24	/3/	1307
25	/tv/	1264
26	/g/	1222
27	/h/	1217
28	/an/	1200
29	/f/	1176
30	/fa/	1163
31	/vg/	1162
32	/po/	1157
33	/cgl/	1127
34	/b/	1118
36	/soc/	1091
35	/lit/	1069
37	/gif/	1046
38	/hr/	1037
39	/u/	1023
40	/vp/	1000
41	/s/	913
42	/o/	903

Although /cm/, /hm/, /n/, /o/, /vp/, and /y/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.

2013 Spring Babby Cup

Ranking	Team	Elo
1	/sp/	1786
2	/wg/	1653
3	/a/	1587
4	/toy/	1528
5	/fit/	1522
6	/int/	1509
7	/m/	1543
8	/mu/	1500
9	/hm/	1489
10	/d/	1469
11	/ck/	1455
12	/mlp/	1445
13	/pol/	1435
14	/tg/	1433
16	/adv/	1419
17	/trv/	1375
18	/k/	1366
19	/co/	1351
20	/v/	1349
21	/r9k/	1317
22	/jp/	1314
23	/sci/	1308
24	/3/	1307
25	/x/	1300
26	/g/	1263
27	/tv/	1255
28	h}	1238
29	/lit/	1236
30	/cgl/	1234
31	/soc/	1224
32	/fa/	1223
33	/an/	1200
34	/f/	1190
35	/po/	1178
36	/b/	1167
37	/u/	1159
38	/vg/	1113
39	/gif/	1092
40	/c/	1061
41	/hr/	1031
42	/vp/	1000
43	/s/	913
44	/o/	903

Although /3/, /an/, /diy/, /ic/, /o/, /s/, and /vp/ appeared in this tournament, they played no official matches.

2013 Summer Cup

Ranking	Team	Elo
1	/sp/	1703
2	/wg/	1687
3	/mu/	1558
4	/a/	1526
5	/m/	1522
6	/toy/	1490
7	/hm/	1489
8	/int/	1483
9	/fit/	1471
10	/ck/	1437
11	/trv/	1427
11	/d/	1427
13	/mlp/	1422
14	/tg/	1407
15	/co/	1406
16	/v/	1385
17	/adv/	1380
18	/k/	1366
19	/u/	1364
20	/pol/	1345
21	/jp/	1326
22	/b/	1318
23	/r9k/	1317
24	/po/	1310
25	/3/	1307
26	/sci/	1305
27	/h/	1284
28	/x/	1278
29	/soc/	1275
30	/g/	1247
31	/cgl/	1224
32	/f/	1210
33	/an/	1200
34	/tv/	1198
35	/lit/	1189
36	/fa/	1166
37	/vg/	1113
38	/gif/	1092
39	/c/	1061
40	/hr/	1031
41	/vp/	1000
41	/s/	913
42	/o/	903